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Business Insider looked at how components of the labor market have settled down, like wage growth. And that more boring but steady labor market could be great news for workers and job seekers. The US could be in a Goldilocks job market. Job switchers are seeing higher wage growth than people staying, according to the 12-month moving average of median wage growth from the Atlanta Fed's Wage Growth Tracker. So what will happen to the Goldilocks job market?
Persons: Nick Bunker, Bunker, , That's, Julia Pollak, ZipRecruiter's, " Pollak, Pollak, Job, Julie Su, switchers, Eugenio Alemán, Raymond James, Juliana Kaplan Organizations: Service, North America, BLS Locations: Atlanta
That may not be a surprise to consumers who are still feeling the weight of higher prices. Inflation — as measured by the consumer price index — rose 3.5% from a year ago and 0.4% for the month. The consumer price index, or CPI, tracks the average changes in prices over time for consumer certain goods and services. Consequently, if your wages haven't increased by that much over the same period, you're more likely to feel the pinch of higher prices. About 60% of households are living paycheck to paycheck, McBride said.
Persons: Kazuhiro Nogi, Brett House, Eugenio Aleman, Raymond James, Aleman, Greg McBride, McBride Organizations: Afp, Getty Images, Columbia Business School, Consumers, Bankrate Locations: Tokyo
The U.S. is still grappling with higher inflation, government data released this week shows. This "does not mean prices have come down, it just means that they are increasing at a slower rate," said Brett House, an economics professor at Columbia Business School. "It is reasonable that people continue to be frustrated by high prices," House said. While inflation is an overall increase in prices, that doesn't mean all prices go up, said Eugenio Aleman, chief economist at Raymond James. "Some prices go up, some prices go down," Aleman said.
Persons: Brett House, , Eugenio Aleman, Raymond James, Aleman Organizations: Columbia Business School, Bureau of Labor Statistics Locations: U.S
MONTERREY, Mexico (Reuters) - At least 12 people were killed in a shootout with security forces in northern Mexico near the border with the United States, Mexican authorities said on Sunday night. Tamaulipas state's security agency said in a statement published on X that the soldiers were on patrol in the municipality of Miguel Aleman, along the Texas border, when they were attacked by "armed civilians." The agency did not respond to questions about whether any soldiers were killed or injured in the shootout. The state of Tamaulipas has various organized crime groups, whose main activities include human smuggling and drug trafficking, authorities say. (Reporting by Raul Cortes and Laura Gottesdiener; Editing by Aurora Ellis)
Persons: Miguel Aleman, Raul Cortes, Laura Gottesdiener, Aurora Ellis Locations: MONTERREY, Mexico, United States, Tamaulipas, Texas
US producer prices fell in December for the third consecutive month, bringing a closely watched gauge of inflation to a rate more in line with pre-pandemic times. Wholesale inflation as measured by the Producer Price Index rose 1% annually in December, up slightly from November’s revised 0.8% reading, according to data released Friday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. On Thursday, the December Consumer Price Index, which is the most widely used measure of retail inflation, showed prices rose annually by 3.4%. “Producers are not facing costs that need to be pushed through to consumers in order to maintain their bottom lines that would reignite inflation,” Rankin said. The US central bank has become increasingly data dependent in its campaign to bring down inflation.
Persons: Price, we’ve, Kurt Rankin, Rankin, “ there’s, Eugenio Aleman, Raymond James ’, ” Rankin, , , Organizations: New, New York CNN, Bureau of Labor Statistics, PPI, PNC Financial Services, CNN, , PNC Locations: New York, United States
He's worked with everyone from Madonna and Shakira to Peso Pluma and Karol G. He has one Grammy and 18 Latin Grammys already to his name, and is the top nominee at Thursday's 2023 Latin Grammys ceremony. Unlike most of his contemporaries dominating the music industry, though, Barrera is a producer and songwriter first, recently receiving a songwriter of the year nod for the Grammys in February. He’s also nominated in the brand-new songwriter of the year category of the Latin Grammys, and says he’s proud to be recognized alongside his collaborators and mentors. “Un x100to” is one of the few regional Mexican music songs that have managed to reach the song of the year category at this year's Latin Grammys. He wondered how Marshmello would translate to the genre, but Barrera was pleasantly surprised with the American DJ and producer's interest in Latin music.
Persons: — Édgar Barrera, He's, Madonna, Shakira, Karol G, Barrera, , , Maluma, Marc Anthony, Camilo, Alejandro Sanz, He’s, Barrera —, , Puerto Rican reggaetonero, ” Barrera, Miguel, Camila Cabello, Manuel Turizo, , ’ ” Barrera, it's Organizations: MEXICO CITY, Pluma, Associated Press, NASA, Grupo Frontera, Puerto Rican, Mexico City’s, American DJ Locations: MEXICO, Spanish, Miami, Seville, Spain, Mexican, Texas, Tamaulipas, McAllen , Texas, Miguel Alemán, , American
Since the end of October, citizens of 57 largely African countries and India have had to pay the fee, according to El Salvador’s aviation authority. Also, the U.S. has been pressuring Central American countries to curb migration flows to its border with Mexico. El Salvador’s aviation authority said most passengers who have to pay the fee are headed to Nicaragua on the commercial airline Avianca. Political Cartoons View All 1244 ImagesA flight itinerary of one Senegalese migrant seen by The Associated Press showed the migrant passing through Morocco, Spain and El Salvador before landing in Managua. “Part of me wonders ... we will not critique the Bukele administration as much because it’s supposedly reducing the levels of migrants?”___Associated Press writer Marcos Alemán in San Salvador, El Salvador, contributed to this report.
Persons: — El, El Salvador’s, Nayib Bukele, Donald Trump's, Bukele, Joe Biden, , Biden, Pamela Ruiz, ” —, Western Hemisphere Affairs Brian A, Nichols, , Ruiz, Marcos Alemán Organizations: MEXICO CITY, Aviation, Central, Associated Press, El Salvador, El, U.S . State Department, Central America, International Crisis, State, Western Hemisphere Affairs, Crisis Locations: MEXICO, India, U.S, Mexico . U.S, Nicaragua, Haiti, Cuba, Africa, Morocco, Spain, El Salvador, Managua, United States, Guatemala, Costa Rica, Colombia, Ecuador, San Salvador , El Salvador
The U.S. economy is on a roll, expanding at a 4.9% annual clip in the third quarter, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported on Thursday. Analysts are looking for the overall index to show prices increased at a 3.4% annual rate and the core index at 3.7%, down from 3.5% and 3.9%, respectively. On Wednesday, Adobe Analytics issued its monthly measure of online prices showing they continue to fall, hitting a 41-month low in September. “Online prices fell for the majority of Adobe’s tracked categories (12 of 18) on an annual basis. On a month-over-month basis, online prices were down 0.6%.”
Persons: ” Joseph Brusuelas, , Steve Rick, Raymond James, Eugenio Aleman, Organizations: Economic, RSM US, Federal Reserve, TruStage, Labor Department, Adobe Analytics, Locations: U.S
"When the 10-year yield goes up, it will have a knock-on effect for almost everything," according to Brett House, economics professor at Columbia Business School. There are many factors driving the recent spike in Treasury yields, economists said. Most of the recent jump in Treasury yields is due to a so-called term premium, said Andrew Hunter, deputy chief U.S. economist at Capital Economics. Student loans could get pricierThere is also a correlation between Treasury yields and student loans. The government sets the annual rates on those loans once a year, based on the 10-year Treasury.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Mark Hamrick, Brett House, Andrew Hunter, Hunter, Tony Dwyer, Canaccord Genuity, Freddie Mac, Eugenio Aleman, Raymond James Organizations: Federal, Stock, Fed, Columbia Business School, Treasury, Capital Economics Locations: U.S
"When the 10-year yield goes up, it will have a knock-on effect for almost everything," according to Columbia Business School economics professor Brett House. Why Treasury yields have jumpedA bond's yield is the total annual return investors get from bond payments. There are many factors driving the recent spike in Treasury yields, economists said. Student loans could get pricierThere is also a correlation between Treasury yields and student loans. The government sets the annual rates on those loans once a year, based on the 10-year Treasury.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Mark Hamrick, Brett House, Andrew Hunter, Hunter, Freddie Mac, Eugenio Aleman, Raymond James Organizations: Treasury, Columbia Business School, Fed, Capital Economics Locations: U.S
Jamie Kelter Davis | Bloomberg | Getty ImagesA recession has been in the forecast for much of 2023. "A recession is obviously going to happen at some point," said Jack Manley, global market strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management. Those factors may prompt the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates higher for longer, Aleman said. Experts say the key is to automate your savings so you do not even see the money in your paycheck. Another advantage to saving now: Rising interest rates mean the potential returns on that money are the highest they have been in 15 years.
Persons: Jamie Kelter Davis, Jack Manley, , Eugenio Aleman, Raymond James, Aleman, Manley, Barry Glassman, CNBC.com, Glassman, Mark Hamrick, Matt Schulz, Schulz Organizations: Bloomberg, Getty, Asset Management, National Association for Business Economics, Finance, Federal Reserve, Wealth Services, CNBC's, Bankrate Locations: Chicago
NEW YORK (AP) — Inside the U.N.'s gates, world leaders use the spotlight to talk — to each other and the entire planet. Nonprofit organizations send their senior leaders to the sidelines of the U.N. General Assembly at significant expense to make sure their voices are heard in the right rooms. It was one of some 40 events the Ford Foundation hosted connected to General Assembly week, flexing its power to convene. The sidelines of the General Assembly first began drawing major crowds in 2014, when a U.N. The framework, he said, helps groups “to focus on a pretty specific action that might feel small given the SDGs but still has impact.
Persons: , Elizabeth Cousens, , ’ ”, Monica Aleman, She’ll, James Baldwin, Protesters, Keya Chatterjee, Chatterjee, Joe Biden, Antonio Guterres, Melinda Gates, Mark Suzman, ” Suzman, Atul Tandon, Zia Khan Organizations: Nonprofit, General, UN Foundation, Sustainable, Ford Foundation, Assembly, Climate Summit, Melinda Gates Foundation, Gates Foundation, Opportunity International, The Rockefeller Foundation, Brookings Institution, Lilly Endowment Inc, AP Locations: New York City, U.S, Manhattan, Washington, United States, China, India, Russia, United Kingdom, France, South Africa
Hundreds of people line up outside the Kentucky Career Center, over two hours prior to its opening, to find assistance with their unemployment claims, in Frankfort, Kentucky, U.S. June 18, 2020. Though demand for labor is slowing, overall labor market conditions have remained tight despite higher interest rates. "The U.S. labor market continues to outperform expectations," said Eugenio Aleman, chief economist at Raymond James. The so-called continuing claims declined 21,000 to 1.662 million during the week ending Sept. 9, also the lowest level since January, the claims report showed. Continuing claims remain historically low, a reminder that labor market conditions are still tight.
Persons: Bryan Woolston, Eugenio Aleman, Raymond James, Unadjusted, Jerome Powell, Stellantis, Lucia Mutikani, Chizu Nomiyama, Paul Simao Organizations: Kentucky, Center, REUTERS, Bryan Woolston Acquire, United Auto Workers, UAW, Labor Department, Reuters, Reserve, Ford, GM, Chrysler, Workers, Thomson Locations: Frankfort , Kentucky, U.S, WASHINGTON, Indiana, California, South Carolina , New York, Georgia, Kansas, Ohio
New York CNN —Wholesale inflation accelerated for the second month in a row, mirroring a similar trend in the Consumer Price Index report, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Thursday. The Producer Price Index, a key measure of price changes at the wholesale level, rose to 1.6% from 1.3% for the 12 months ending in August. Stripping out the more volatile categories of food and energy, core PPI rose 2.2% on an annual basis in August, in line with economists’ expectations. The PPI is a closely watched inflation gauge, since it captures average price shifts upstream of the consumer. But this week’s inflation data is unlikely to push the Fed to raise interest rates at its meeting next week.
Persons: Price, uptick, ” Raymond James ’, Eugenio Aleman Organizations: New, New York CNN, of Labor Statistics, PPI, July’s, Thursday’s PPI Locations: New York, July’s
[2/24]Read moreIn a landscape of sweeping desert, canyons and cactus-studded hills, migrants fall prey to heat stroke in summer and hypothermia in winter, U.S. border officials have said. Some bodies are never found. Paul Dillon, spokesperson for IOM, said that the figures recorded "represent the lowest estimates available." PHOTO: A scout keeps a watch in the background as smugglers prepare to launch a raft...CIUDAD MIGUEL ALEMAN, MEXICO
Persons: Paul Dillon, CIUDAD MIGUEL ALEMAN Organizations: IOM, CIUDAD Locations: U.S, MEXICO
MEXICO CITY, Sept 9 (Reuters) - A group of Mexican and American citizens traveling in vehicles in northern Mexico was attacked by armed civilians on Saturday, leaving at least three Mexican passengers injured, local authorities said. "The caravan was made up of 20 people, 16 nationals and four Americans who were traveling in two trucks," reported INM, which condemned the attack. INM said that three Mexican citizens were wounded: a woman who received two gunshot wounds to the back, a 62-year-old man who was shot in the leg, and a 70-year-old man whose finger was hit by a bullet. None of the Americans were injured, according to INM. Reporting by Raul Cortes and Jackie Botts; Editing by Chizu NomiyamaOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: Miguel Aleman, INM, Raul Cortes, Jackie Botts, Chizu Organizations: MEXICO CITY, National Migration Institute, Reuters, . Customs, Border Protection, Roma, Thomson Locations: MEXICO, Mexico, Mexican, Tamaulipas, United States, Dallas, Atlanta, U.S
Minneapolis CNN —US inflation may have remained elevated in July, but consumers just wanted to have some fun. It’s the strongest monthly spending gain since January; however, underlying data indicates this type of activity may be on borrowed time. The Personal Consumption Expenditures index showed that prices increased 0.2% on a monthly basis and 3.3% annually. Economists were expecting monthly increases of 0.2% for the headline and core indexes and 3.3% and 4.2%, respectively, for the annual numbers. Even when adjusted for inflation, spending surged in July, rising by 0.6% from the month before.
Persons: ” Eugenio Alemán, Raymond James, , ” Gregory Daco, EY, Jerome Powell, ” Powell, Wells, Shannon Seery, Wells Fargo, ” Seery, ” Daco, Powell, Jackson, Organizations: Minneapolis CNN, New Commerce Department, Federal, Commerce Department, Amazon’s, PCE, CNN, , of Labor Statistics Locations: Minneapolis, Jackson Hole , Wyoming
Some investors are betting on rate cuts as soon as early next year, perhaps on expectations that the economy might soon deteriorate. If unemployment spikes because of higher interest rates, for example, the Fed would likely cut rates to stem job losses under its mandate of maximum employment. The Fed’s tough talk has rattled the bond market, helping push up long-dated yields. In addition to the possibility of cutting rates because of an economic downturn, the Fed could also cut rates if inflation slows too much. “If the Fed sees that inflation goes below the 2% target, they could start decreasing interest rates, but I don’t think they are going to start decreasing interest rates until that happens,” said Eugenio Alemán, chief economist at Raymond James.
Persons: there’s, Rather, Austan Goolsbee, Mike Hackett, they’ve, , Eugenio Alemán, Raymond James, Melissa Brown, China’s ‘ Lehman, Laura, Mengchen Zhang, Technology —, Zhongrong, Read, Thomas Barkin, Michelle Bowman, Kansas City Fed’s, Jerome Powell, Christine Lagarde Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, DC CNN, Federal, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Treasury, Nationwide, CNN, Fed, Service, KBC Corporation, Xianheng, Science, Technology, National Association of Realtors, Body, Nvidia, Kansas City, Global, US Commerce Department, Labor Department, Central Bank Locations: Washington, , China, BJ’s, Abercrombie, Kansas
Some said the downgrade to June's data meant the rise in the PPI last month was in line with expectations. In the 12 months through July, the PPI increased 0.8% after gaining 0.2% in June, boosted by a lower base of comparison last year. Excluding the volatile food and energy components, the so-called core goods prices were unchanged last month after falling 0.2% in June. In the 12 months through July, the so-called core PPI increased 2.7%, matching June's rise. As with all the July inflation data, the pick-up in the annual core PCE rate is due to unfavorable base effects.
Persons: Bill Adams, Will Compernolle, Eugenio Aleman, Raymond James, Lucia Mutikani, Andrea Ricci, Paul Simao Organizations: PPI, Labor Department, Federal Reserve, Comerica Bank, Reuters, Reuters Graphics, Treasury, Consumers, University of, CPI, Fed, Thomson Locations: August WASHINGTON, Dallas, U.S, New York, disinflation
Here's the inflation breakdown for July, in one chart
  + stars: | 2023-08-10 | by ( Kate Dore | Cfp | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
July's CPI report was "better than we were expecting," said Eugenio Aleman, chief economist at Raymond James. Nearly all of the monthly inflation increase came from shelter costs, which increased by 0.4% and were up 7.7% compared with one year ago. Despite rising oil costs, energy prices increased just 0.1% in July and food increased 0.2%, according to the bureau. However, there was relief for used vehicle prices, which dropped by 1.3%, and medical care services, which were down 0.4%. 'Jumping oil prices' is a threat to inflation targetwatch nowMillions of households are 'stretched financially'Despite falling inflation, many Americans are still feeling the pinch of higher prices.
Persons: July's, Eugenio Aleman, Raymond James, it's, Aleman, Greg McBride, It's Organizations: U.S . Bureau of Labor Statistics, July's CPI Locations: U.S
There were 1.6 job openings for every unemployed person in June, little changed from May. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 9.610 million job openings. Reuters GraphicsThere were an additional 136,000 job openings in healthcare and social assistance, while vacancies increased by 62,000 in state and local government, excluding education. The job openings rate was unchanged at 5.8% in June. ISM manufacturing PMIIt has, however, not been a reliable predictor of manufacturing employment in the government's nonfarm payrolls count.
Persons: Elizabeth Frantz, Eugenio Aleman, Raymond James, Lucia Mutikani, Andrea Ricci, Paul Simao Organizations: REUTERS, Reuters, Federal, Labor, Survey, Labor Department, Employers, Treasury, Institute for Supply Management, PMI, Economists, ISM, Thomson Locations: Arlington , Virginia, U.S, WASHINGTON, . U.S
To that point, 68% are expecting a recession in the next six months, and 80% of those respondents expect it to be severe. Experts weigh in3 reasons it can be smarter to rent, even if you can buy Yet, predictions from various experts are not as dire. watch nowAt Raymond James, the current forecast calls for a "very, very mild" recession, according to chief economist Eugenio Aleman. Raymond James is predicting a 1.3% growth rate for 2023 and 0.6% for 2024 — which coincides with the firm's forecast for a "very, very mild recession," Aleman said. To cope with high inflation, Nationwide's survey found more than half of respondents are eating out less, with 54%.
Persons: Jamie Grill, We're, Kathy Bostjancic, it's, Raymond James, Eugenio Aleman, Aleman, Nonfarm, , Gray, Tang Ming Tung, Bostjancic Organizations: Finance, Nationwide, U.S . Department of Labor, ADP, Employers, Challenger, Federal Reserve, Getty, Auto Locations: U.S, American
Washington, DC CNN —New home sales surged in May, as buyers looked to new construction as an alternative to the low inventory of existing homes for sale. Homeowners with ultra-low mortgage rates are reluctant to sell and buy another home at a much higher rate. Sales of existing homes have been down for the past few months, while new home sales have been rising. Mortgage rates reached as high as 6.79% at the end of May as uncertainty moved through the financial industry due to the debt ceiling standoff. This increase in mortgage rates cooled mortgage applications.
Persons: , , Nancy Vanden Houten, Ryan Sweet, Eugenio Aleman, Raymond James, ” Aleman Organizations: DC CNN, US Department of Housing, Urban Development, Census Bureau, Oxford Economics, Federal Reserve Locations: Washington, Northeast, South, West
Washington, DC CNN —The US labor market picked up momentum in May, once again defying expectations of a slowdown. Many economists, including those at the Fed, still expect a recession later in the year. The labor market and signs of future disinflationThe May jobs report mostly showed that the labor market held up. Some top economists have argued that the strong labor market has had a minor, albeit growing, impact on inflation. Hawkish Fed officials still think the Fed’s job isn’t done.
Persons: That’s, Joe Biden’s, , Philip Jefferson, Patrick Harker, , ” Harker, It’s, ” Julia Pollak, ZipRecruiter’s, you’ve, you’d, Dave Gilbertson, hasn’t, Ben Bernanke, ” Jack Macdowell, Louis President James Bullard, Bullard, Louis Fed’s, Louis, Jerome Powell, there’s, Ian Shepherdson, Eugenio Alemán, Raymond James Organizations: DC CNN, Federal, Fed, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, National Association for Business Economics, CNN, Employers, of Labor Statistics, BLS, UKG, The Palisades Group, Hawkish Fed, Federal Reserve Bank of St, Louis Fed, Pantheon Locations: Washington, Washington ,
CNN —Goalkeeper Santiago Ramírez scored an absurd long-range goal to cap off a wild semifinal between his Atlético Morelia team and Celaya in Mexico’s Liga de Expansión. Trailing 2-1 in the second leg and 3-2 on aggregate, Celaya threw everything forward in a desperate attempt to find an equalizer in stoppage time. With Revuelta and the rest of his teammates attempting to run back to their unguarded goal, Ramírez let fly with a booming kick out of his hands that sent the ball into the opposition net, bouncing just twice in the penalty area on the way. Santiago Ramírez aprovechó que el arquero de los Toros fue a rematar y con este despeje anotó el 1-3 definitivo en el Miguel Alemán. It was a fitting end to a chaotic game that featured five red cards – two for Celaya and three for Morelia – and four goals.
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